Fresh Water and Environmental Change - The Ecological Consequences of Altered Hydrological Regimes Primary Support from the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis

Robert Naiman, UW Fisheries and Lisa Thompson, NCEAS

(check the NCEAS web site for the full list of working group participants)

Introduction

The environment, as well as human societies, depends on fresh water and the resources associated with it. Unfortunately, abundant evidence suggests that freshwater resources are being rapidly depleted and their quality severely degraded. In addition, even though it is widely recognized that predicting the future vitality of altered freshwater environments is complex, scientists and managers are increasingly called on to provide predictions. The purpose of the proposed NCEAS working group activity is to address the ecological consequences of altered water regimes in a future world. The specific objectives are: (1) To identify and acquire available data bases on regional trends in water regimes and make a preliminary evaluation of their completeness and accuracy. (2) To analyze the data bases in terms of projected impacts on freshwater biodiversity (including invasions), productivity, and resistance/resilience to unusual disturbances. (3) To provide alternative scenarios for aquatic ecosystem management using modeling approaches. The spatial scope will be global and the temporal scope will focus on the next 2-3 decades. The activities will be coordinated with relevant International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) bodies such as the Scientific Committee on Water Resources (SCOWAR) and the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), as well as the International Hydrological Programme (IHP, UNESCO).