Publications

Crozier, L. G., A. P. Hendry, P. W. Lawson, T. P. Quinn, N. Mantua, J. Battin, R. G. Shaw, R. B. Huey. 2008. Evolutionary responses to climate change for organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evolutionary Applications 1(1):252-270. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x.
Moore, SK, NJ Mantua, BM Hickey, VL Trainer. 2008. Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events. Harmful Algae. DOI:10.1016/j.hal.2008.10.003.
Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.P. Kellogg, and J.A. Newton. 2008. Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology and Oceanography 53(5):1746-1758.
Schindler, D.E., X. Augerat, E. Fleishman, N.J. Mantua, B. Riddell, M. Ruckelshaus, J. Seeb, M. Webster. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon. Fisheries 33:502-506.
Trites, A. W., A. J. Miller, H. D. G. Maschner, M. A. Alexander, S. J. Bograd, J. A. Calder, A. Capotondi, K. O. Coyle, E. Di Lorenzo, B. P. Finney, E. J. Gregr, C. E. Grosch, S. R. Hare, G. L. Hunt, J. Jahncke, N. B. Kachel, H.-J. Kim, C. Ladd, N. J. Mantua, C. Marzban, W. Maslowski, R. Mendelssohn, D. J. Neilson, S. R. Okkonen, J. E. Overland, K. L. Reedy-Maschner, T. C. Royer, F. B. Schwing, J. X. L. Wang and A. J. Winship, 2007: Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography, 16, 46-67.
Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, L. C. Whitely Binder, E. S. Sarachik, P. W. Mote, and N. Mantua. 2006: An approach to designing a national climate service. PNAS, December 26, 2006; 103(52): 19613 - 19615.
Mantua, N.J. 2006: A Decadal Chronology of 20th-Century Changes in Earth’s Natural Systems. In Sustainability or Collapse? An integrated history and future of people on earth, edited by R. Costanza, L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen. MIT Press Books, Cambridge, MA 02142, 495pp.
Hibbard, K.A., P.J. Crutzen, E.F. Lambin, D.M. Liverman, N.J. Mantua, J.R. McNeill, B.Messerli, and W. Steffen. 2006: Decadal-scale interactions of humans and the environment. In Sustainability or Collapse? An integrated history and future of people on earth, edited by R. Costanza, L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen. MIT Press Books, Cambridge, MA 02142, 495pp.
Schwing F. B., N. A. Bond, S. J. Bograd, T. Mitchell, M. A. Alexander, N. Mantua, 2006: Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast in 2005: A historical perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22S01, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911.
Mantua, N.. 2005: Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems. PICES Press, Vol. 13: 12-14.
Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2005: Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth reconstructions of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). PALAEO-03692: 1-12. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.03.048
Mantua, N.J.: Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: a review with approaches applied to North Pacific data. 2004. Progress in Oceanography, vol. 60, nos. 2-4:165-182.
Mantua, N.J., and R.C. Francis. 2004: Natural climate insurance for Pacific northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: finding our way through the entangled bank. E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (editors). Sustainable Management of North American Fisheries. American Fisheries Society Symposium 43:127-140.
Maurer, E. P., D. P. Lettenmaier, and N. J. Mantua. 2004. Variability and predictability of North American runoff. Water Resources Research 40, W09306, doi:10.1029/2003WR002789.
Mote, P.W., E.A. Parson, A.F. Hamlet, K.G. Ideker, W.S. Keeton, D.P. Lettenmaier, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, R., Slaughter, and A.K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climate change: the water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change, 61: 45-88.
Francis, R.C., and N.J. Mantua. 2003: Climate and Extinction Risk for Salmon Populations of the Northeast Pacific. Eds. A. D. MacCall and T. C. Wainwright. Assessing extinction risk for West Coast salmon: Proceedings of the workshop, Nov 13-15, 1996, Seattle, WA. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-56: 37-76.
Logerwell, E.A., N.J. Mantua, P. Lawson, R.C. Francis, and V. Agostini. 2003: Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival. Fisheries Oceanography, 12(3): 1-15.
Edmonds, R.L., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2003. Chapter 2. Sources of climate variability in river ecosystems. In R.C. Wissmar and P.A. Bisson, editors. Strategies for restoring river ecosystems: sources of variability and uncertainty in natural and managed systems. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland.
Mote, P.W. and N.J. Mantua. 2002. Coastal upwelling in a warming future. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016086.
Gedalof, Z., NJ Mantua, and DL Peterson. 2002: A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 29., No. 24, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015824, 2002
Mantua, N.J., D. Haidvogal, Y. Kushnir, and N. Bond. 2002: Making the Climate connections: bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program. Oceanography. Vol 15, No 2, 75-86.
Mantua, N.J., and P. Mote. 2002: Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. American Fisheries Society, 32:263-272.
Mantua, N.J. and S.R. Hare. 2002: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58 (No. 1), pp. 35-44.
Mantua, N.J. 2002: La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Pages 102-114 in La Niña and its impacts: facts and speculation. Edited by Michael Glantz. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan. 271pp.
Mantua, N.J. 2001: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Eds M.C. McCracken and J.S. Perry, in The Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Vol 1, The Earth System: physical and chemical dimension of global environmental change: 592-594.
Hare, S.R. and N.J. Mantua. 2000: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography. Vol 47: 103-145.
Minobe, S., and N.J. Mantua. 1999. Interdecadal Modulation of Interannual Climate Variability. Progress in Oceanography, Vol 43: 163-192.
Hare, S.R., N.J. Mantua, and R.C. Francis. 1999: Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific Salmon. Fisheries,Vol. 21, No. 1, 6-14.
Mantua, N.J. and S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, pp. 1069-1079.
Mantua, N.J. and D.S. Battisti. 1995: Aperiodic variability in the Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: ocean-atmosphere interactions in the western equatorial Pacific. Journal of Climate, 8, 2897-2927.
Mantua, N.J. and D.S. Battisti. 1994: Evidence for the Delayed-Oscillator Mechanism for ENSO: the "Observed" Oceanic Kelvin mode in the Far Western Pacific." Journal of Physical Oceanography, 24, 691-699.

Gray Literature

King, J.R. (Ed.) 2005. Report of the Study Group on Fisheries and Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts. PICES Scientific Report No. 28, 162pp.
Mary Ruckelshaus, Nathan Mantua. and Robert Francis: Wisely investing in stocks of Pacific salmon. A commentary to the Seattle Times. Friday, March 26, 2004. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2001887873_salmon26.html)
Mantua, N.J., 2003: We need to get out of the clouds on issue of warming, an invited commentary for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Sunday, May 25, 2003: F1.
Mantua, N.J., and S.R. Hare. 2002: Large scale climate variability and the carrying capacity of Alaska's oceans and watersheds. Chapter 8 in The Status of Alaska's Ocean's and Watersheds 2002. Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council, 441 W. 5th Avenue, Suite 500, Anchorage, AK 99501.
Mantua, N.J., 2002: Environmental prediction, changing ocean conditions and implications for fishery management. The Osprey, newsletter published by the Steelhead Committee of the Federation of Fly Fishers. No. 43, pp. 1, 5-9.
Mantua, N.J. 2000: Ocean Conditions and Columbia River Salmon. Testimony provided for the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Power and Water, Pasco, Washington. April 27, 2000.
Pearcy, W., and N.J. Mantua, 1999: Changing Ocean Conditions and their Effects on Steelhead. The Osprey, newsletter published by the Steelhead Committee of the Federation of Fly Fishers, No. 35, pp. 6-10, 24.