What is this figure all about?

FISH 497
M/W 11:00-12:20
Instructor: Tim Essington
318B Fisheries
essing@u.washington.edu

About this Course

Electronic Homework Submission

Electronic Ballot !
( No Florida Residents Permitted
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Miscellaneous Handouts
Notes on Stability Analysis
MathFacts
Tips on Modeling in Excel

Group Project #1

Group Project #2
Group Project Summary

SCHEDULE    
Introduction to Modeling  
March 28 Why do we model? What is a model?
March 30 Model Development
 
Analytic Models  
April 5 Process of Model Building Part I  

April 7

Process of Model Building Part II

Optional Readings (link to e-reserves):
Walters 1986. A process of model building. Chapter 3 of "Adaptive management of renewable resources

Hall, C.A.S. and Day, J.W. 1974. Systems and Models: terms and basic principles. in "Ecosystem modeling in theory and practice".

Scheffer and Beets. 1994. Ecological models and the pitfalls of causality. Hydrobiologia 275/276:115-124

 
April 12 and 14th

Single-Species Models

Programs (zipped)

 
April 19 Competion and Predation Models
Notes on Stability Analysis
Competition Model
Nicholson Bailey Model
 
April 21 Age- and Stage-Structured Models
Poptools Excel Add-in
Notes on matrix analyses
Example1
Example2
Example3
 
April 26

Compartment Models
Lake vs. Stream Model

 
April 28 Alternate Stable States
 
Models for Decision Making    
May 3

Modeling without "the facts"
Matlab Files (zipped)

 
May 5 Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Results
Matlab Files (zipped)
 
May 10

Monte-Carlo Methods Part 1
Stock-Recruit View
View Bias

 
May 12 Monte-Carlo Methods Part 2
Matlab Files
 
Confronting Models with Data  
May 17

Probability 101
Probability Distributions
Unicorn Probability
link to "Introduction to Probability"

 
May 19

Likelihood
Patchy Unicorn

 
May 24

Parameter Estimation
Unicorn Comparison

Patchy Unicorn Likelihood

 

 
May 26 Bayesian Parameter Estimation
Bayesian Squirrel
Bayesian Unicorn
Patchy Bayes
 
 
 
June 2

Students Choice!:
Movement Models
Matlab Files