Decisions regarding conservation or sustainable utilization of species requires evaluation of the consequences of alternative actions in the face of considerable uncertainty. This problem is called risk analysis and involves the integration of mathematical modeling, statistics and decision theory. In this course we will study the modern methods used to evaluate risks in problems of conservation and management of natural populations, with special emphasis on endangered species listing and population viability analysis. The basic framework of risk analysis is statistical decision theory, examining alternative hypotheses, alternative management actions, and the consequences of hypotheses and actions. We will explore Monte-Carlo and Bayesian methods using recent literature on conservation of whales, the spotted-owl, sea lions and commercial fisheries. We will also examine how to evaluate alternative management actions including adaptive management policies.
General Information
Lectures : Tuesday/Thursday 1:30 - 3:00
Room : FSH 207
Instructor : Prof. Ray Hilborn (Room 310)
rayh@fish.washington.edu
Interested students with any background should speak with the instructor
Material
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